Credit Suisse said the impact of the curtailment on commodities will be less significant than in 2021, when this round of power shortages was caused by high temperatures, and in 2021 because of "double control of energy consumption". In addition, downstream demand this year is relatively weak. However, SMM told reporters that most companies have officially entered a five-day shutdown state from 0:00 on August 15, and considering that ternary, iron-lithium, etc. still need a certain amount of time to wait for the kiln after the production line cools down As the furnace heats up, some manufacturers say that this round of power cuts will actually affect the company's output for 7 to 8 days.
The battery industry chain is impacted
Recently, the southwest region of the country has continued to be hot and precipitation has decreased. Affected by this, the power supply in Sichuan is tight. In order to ensure the safety of the power grid and the electricity consumption for people's livelihood, Sichuan has cancelled the demand response of active staggered peak avoidance since August 15, and expanded industrial enterprises in 19 cities (prefectures) in the province (except Panzhihua and Liangshan) to provide electricity to the people. The implementation time is from 00:00 on August 15th to 24:00 on the 20th.
The battery industry chain seems to bear the brunt. It is understood that the power cuts in Sichuan Province will affect many fields such as lithium salts, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, graphitization, etc. There are many people who stop production and reduce production. Peak production and other methods to avoid direct shutdown, but most companies have officially entered a shutdown state from 0:00 on August 15.
As far as the most concerned upstream resource lithium salt is concerned, Credit Suisse said that the production capacity of lithium carbonate in Sichuan Province is about 100,000 tons/year, and lithium hydroxide is about 170,000 tons/year. It is estimated that the output of lithium salt is about 2000~3000 tons. Affected (assuming the blackout lasts for 5-7 days), which is equivalent to 4%-5% of China's overall monthly production, it may add fire to an already tight market.
Yi Yanting, research and consulting director of SMM's new energy business department, told reporters that according to statistics, this round of power cuts is expected to lead to 1,120 tons of lithium carbonate, 1,690 tons of lithium hydroxide, 500 tons of ternary materials, and 5,200 tons of lithium iron phosphate in August. tons, about 300 tons of graphitization. On the whole, the power curtailment involves large ternary and lithium iron phosphate factories. Although some manufacturers are still negotiating with government departments, the impact is yet to be determined, but it is expected that the total production reduction at the material end in this round will still be higher than expected, and considering that The status quo of power supply this year does not rule out the possibility that the power curtailment policy will be extended and the actual impact will increase.
Judging from the reaction of the capital market, on the 18th, Putailai, the leader in lithium battery anode materials, fell by more than 5%. During the current round of power curtailment, the supply of lithium resources has already begun to tighten, and the downstream may slow down the pace of upstream material replenishment.
In addition, on the 16th, it was reported that the Ningde Times Sichuan Yibin factory has been suspended due to power cuts from August 15th to 20th. "Sichuan Daily" reported in July that the first, second, third, fifth, and sixth phases of the Ningde era Yibin base have been completed and put into operation, and the seventh and eighth phases have started construction, with a production capacity of 75GWh. If each new energy vehicle is equipped with 50KWh of electricity, 75GWh of power batteries can be equipped with 1.5 million vehicles.
Credit Suisse said that the Yibin base estimates that about 1GWh of battery production will be affected, accounting for 2% of China's total monthly production.
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